Musings from San Diego

Just got back from speaking to over two hundred telecommunications companies on competitive trends. To put things in context, there are over 1,200 rural telephone companies in the United States, many of whom have transformed themselves from boring telephone line companies to Internet, wireless and cable companies. My speech last week in San Diego was about what is on the horizon for big companies like Comcast and Time Warner Cable. In short, the future is entertainment, as Comcast, TWC and Sprint/Nextel have poured big bucks into Clearwire, which will deliver mobile television through 4G technology. It's too big to fail and do you know what that might mean?

• Mobile television for the mini-van. It won't just be a DVD player in mom's minivan. It will be Disney channel and the Superbowl. (There are possibilities here for the education community as well)
• There will be more television viewing, but also more instantaneous uploading and viewing given 4G. (Did you know that YouTube was the pay-on-demand provider for the Sundance film festival?)
• With the positive mobile television trend, expect more commercials ... on your phones or laptops.
• Increase in on-demand viewing. Comcast has sunk a lot into mobile television, but also with its relationship to NBC and recent acquisitions will be banking a lot on viewers to pay as they go.

Other meaningful trends include:

• Increase in landline cutting and video calls. Skype already has improved voice over Internet protocol (VOIP) and VOIP will follow you. It already follows me when I am not on my computer, as my VOIP calls are forwarded to my cell phone. More landlines will also be cut due to a more favorable trend toward renting given the economy.
• Internet blockages! With all this good stuff happening around mobile entertainment (except that I hope folks don't drive and watch television, let alone text message and drive), there's a downside. Some analysts predict that the Internet will slow down as a result. So, we get faster (with broadband) and then slower (with video) and then faster again.

I've uploaded my presentation. Just go to the link on the right hand side of the blog.

That's it for now. Had a blast in San Diego. Ate well, visited friends and even got my flu shot at the airport on the way home. Being a healthcare professional herself, my wife yelled at me for this, but I thought it was great. Just like online education, where it comes to the customer, I've got competent healthcare people conveniently waiting to prevent my personal breakout of H1N1.